DECISION SYSTEMS

The Decisions That Look Simple Usually Aren't

When information is incomplete, the quality of a decision depends less on certainty than on knowing which signals actually matter.

Senior Editor,Light Reading

4 Min Read
Smartphones
(Source: kuaileqie RE/Unsplash)

MyBundle, a company that , is branching into mobile.

MyBundle execs tell Light Reading that it is entering the mobile game via a partnership with Gigs, a mobile virtual network enabler (MVNE) that has already forged partnerships with several partners, including Nubank, OnePay, Cash App, Klarna, Revolut, Motorola, Santander, Sezzle and Tide. AT&T is . In the US, AT&T is Gigs' anchor partner, but it also has an agreement to leverage T-Mobile's network, .

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MORE INFORMATION IS NOT ALWAYS MORE CLARITY

Most difficult decisions do not arrive with complete information.

They arrive with a handful of facts, several assumptions, competing priorities and a deadline that makes waiting for perfect certainty impossible.

The natural response is to collect more information. Sometimes that helps. Sometimes it only creates a larger pile of details without making the decision itself any clearer.

A decision can contain dozens of facts while still depending on only two or three variables.

Related:Some information explains the situation. Other information changes what should be done. Those are not the same thing.

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FIND THE POINT WHERE THE DECISION CHANGES

If a new fact would not change the action, timing or level of risk, it may be useful context - but it is probably not a decisive signal.

Tier 2/3 broadband operators have taken different paths to mobile. Several midsized cable operators have opted to develop a mobile bundle on their own. For example, Mediacom Communications One useful way to reduce complexity is to identify the threshold between two actions. by inking deals Verizon and Reach, and Midco Communications has taken a What would have to become true before the preferred option changes?.

Meanwhile, a growing number of independent broadband operators have tapped into the National Content & Technology Cooperative's Which assumption would have to fail? and its Which missing fact would materially alter the recommendation?.

The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to know which uncertainty can actually change the decision.

THREE QUESTIONS BEFORE ACTING

Jeff Baumgartner

• What do we already know with reasonable confidence?

Jeff Baumgartner is a Senior Editor for Light Reading and is responsible for the day-to-day news coverage and analysis of the cable and video sectors. Follow him on • Which assumption carries the most risk if it is wrong? • What new information would actually cause us to choose differently? and .

DECISION SYSTEMS

WHEN SHOULD YOU WAIT - AND WHEN SHOULD YOU ACT?

Use a simple decision test to separate uncertainty that deserves more investigation from uncertainty that can be managed while moving forward.

DECISION SYSTEMS

THE DECISION TEST

Ask four questions.

If the decision is reversible, delay is costly, and the missing information is unlikely to change the action, moving forward may be more rational than continuing to investigate.

If the decision is difficult to reverse and one obtainable fact could materially change the outcome, waiting for that fact may be justified.

  • FIRST: Can the decision be reversed later at reasonable cost?
  • SECOND: Does waiting create its own meaningful cost or risk?
  • THIRD: Is the missing information realistically obtainable within the available time?
  • FOURTH: Would that information actually change the chosen action?